The CourseCompare Return on Education (ROE) Index provides a standardized, data-driven benchmark evaluating the early-career financial returns of Canadian post-secondary programs. The 2026 model measures financial return across two-year and five-year post-graduation horizons by balancing upfront costs against earning trajectories and labor-market dynamics. All financial variables are evaluated in 2026 real dollars.

Program Selection and Sampling Protocol

The index evaluates 21 core programs (12 certificates and diplomas, 9 degrees) representing 9 Statistics Canada CIP primary groupings. Programs were selected by combining Statistics Canada 2021 Census 4-digit CIP popularity data with CourseCompare learner demand data.

Tuition data is collected across a minimum of 30 designated educational institutions per program, sampled proportionally according to provincial Designated Learning Institution (DLI) counts. Where national program availability is restricted, provincial sampling rules default to the maximum available institutional coverage.

Variable Weighting and Core Model Structure

Five-Year Cumulative Earnings Step-Ladder

Cumulative Earnings = SalaryYr1 + SalaryYr2 + SalaryYr3 + SalaryYr4 + SalaryYr5

• Years 1 and 2: Set to Statistics Canada 2-year median graduate salary.
• Years 3 and 4: Linearly interpolated between Year 2 and Year 5 median salaries.
• Year 5: Set to blended Year 5 salary data.

Labour Market Multipliers

Core ROE scores receive two multiplicative adjustments capturing industry growth and Qualitative Outlook:

Final ROE Score = Core ROE Score x (1 + Job Growth %) x LMO Multiplier

• COPS Job Growth Multiplier: Derived from COPS 2024–2033 national employment growth projections (baseline average = 0.91%).
• Labour Market Outlook (LMO) Multiplier: Evaluates four qualitative dimensions (0-2 points each): Labour Demand, Credential/Regulatory Value, Employment Stability, and AI Resilience.

Final ROE Score Formula

The final model uses different earnings inputs and weightings for the two-year and five-year ROE scores.

Two-Year Core ROE Score = (0.40 × Normalized Salary) + (0.30 × Inverse Normalized Tuition) + (0.20 × Inverse Normalized Debt) + (0.10 × Inverse Normalized Duration)

Final Two-Year ROE Score = Two-Year Core ROE Score × (1 + Job Growth %) × Labour Market Outlook Multiplier

Five-Year Core ROE Score = (0.65 × Normalized Cumulative Earnings) + (0.15 × Inverse Normalized Tuition) + (0.10 × Inverse Normalized Debt) + (0.10 × Inverse Normalized Duration)

Final Five-Year ROE Score = Five-Year Core ROE Score × (1 + Job Growth %) × Labour Market Outlook Multiplier

Benchmark Re-Indexing

To simplify public interpretation, final scores are re-indexed against the selected-program average (excluding the baseline normalization row):

Re-Indexed Final ROE Score = (Final ROE Score / Mean Final ROE Score of Selected Programs) x 100

• 100: Average score across selected programs.
• >100: Above-average financial return relative to cost and time invested.
• <100: Below-average financial return relative to cost and time invested.

How to Interpret and Communicate the ROE Scores

Keep in mind that the ROE Score is not the same as a traditional Return on Investment. The ROE Score is an indexed measure of return on education, based on earnings, tuition, debt, duration, and labour-market conditions.

The two-year score reflects early-career return using two-year graduate earnings. The five-year score reflects estimated return over the first five years after graduation, using cumulative earnings over Years 1–5. We are not considering mid/late stage career salaries or lifetime earnings.

The ROE score should not be described as a guarantee of individual earnings or employment outcomes.

Explore the 2026 Return on Education (ROE) Index here.

CourseCompare Editorial Team

CourseCompare is Canada's marketplace for education. Its editorial staff consists of award-winning journalists, visual storytellers, data analysts and web developers working together to help prepare people for the future of work.